LBO
Private Equity
Financial Modeling

LBO Model Analysis with AI

Finyna
Finyna Financial Team
March 16, 2025
14 min read

Learn how to leverage Finyna to build and analyze leveraged buyout models for investment decisions

Introduction to LBO Model Analysis

A Leveraged Buyout (LBO) is a financial transaction where a company is acquired using a significant amount of borrowed money (leverage) to meet the acquisition cost. LBO models are essential tools for private equity firms and investment bankers to evaluate potential buyout opportunities and determine the expected returns.

Finyna can help you build sophisticated LBO models, analyze different scenarios, and make informed investment decisions. The AI assistant can guide you through the complex calculations, help you understand key value drivers, and optimize your investment strategy.

How to Use Finyna for LBO Analysis

Below are examples of effective prompts for different LBO analysis scenarios, along with sample responses from our AI assistant. These examples demonstrate how to structure your queries to get the most useful LBO insights.

Basic LBO Model Setup

I need to build an LBO model for a potential acquisition. Can you help me set it up?

I'd be happy to help you build an LBO model for your potential acquisition. To create a comprehensive model, I'll need some key information and assumptions. Let me guide you through the process:

  1. Target Company Information:

    • What is the target company's current revenue and EBITDA?
    • What's the historical growth rate?
    • What industry is the company in?
  2. Transaction Structure:

    • What purchase multiple are you considering (e.g., 8-10x EBITDA)?
    • What's your expected debt-to-equity ratio for the transaction?
    • Are there any seller financing or earnout considerations?
  3. Debt Structure:

    • What types of debt are you considering (senior debt, subordinated debt, mezzanine financing)?
    • What are the expected interest rates and terms?
    • Any specific amortization schedules or covenant requirements?
  4. Exit Assumptions:

    • What's your expected holding period?
    • What exit multiple are you targeting?
  5. Operational Improvements:

    • What revenue growth do you expect during the holding period?
    • What margin improvements do you anticipate achieving?
    • Any significant capital expenditure or working capital changes?

Would you like me to proceed with some standard assumptions for a mid-market company, or do you have specific inputs for any of these parameters?

Let's use standard assumptions for a mid-market SaaS company with $50M in revenue and $15M in EBITDA. I'm looking at a 5-year holding period.

Great! I'll build an LBO model for a mid-market SaaS company with 50Minrevenueand50M in revenue and 15M in EBITDA, using a 5-year holding period with standard industry assumptions.

SaaS Company LBO Model Analysis

Transaction Assumptions:

  • Purchase Multiple: 12.0x EBITDA (standard for growing SaaS)
  • Purchase Price: 180M(12.0x180M (12.0x 15M EBITDA)
  • Transaction Date: January 1, 2024
  • Exit Date: December 31, 2028 (5-year hold)
  • Exit Multiple: 11.0x EBITDA (conservative vs. entry)

Financing Structure:

  • Total Purchase Price: $180M
  • Debt Financing: $108M (60% of purchase price)
    • Senior Debt: $90M (5.0x EBITDA, 6.5% interest)
    • Subordinated Debt: $18M (1.2x EBITDA, 9.5% interest)
  • Equity Contribution: $72M (40% of purchase price)

Operational Projections (2024-2028):

YearRevenue ($M)GrowthEBITDA MarginEBITDA ($M)CapEx ($M)Δ Working Capital ($M)
2024$57.515.0%31.0%$17.8$2.9$1.2
2025$66.115.0%32.0%$21.2$3.3$1.4
2026$75.013.5%33.0%$24.8$3.8$1.4
2027$84.412.5%34.0%$28.7$4.2$1.5
2028$93.611.0%35.0%$32.8$4.7$1.5

Debt Schedule:

YearBeginning Debt ($M)Mandatory Repayment ($M)Optional Repayment ($M)Ending Debt ($M)Interest Expense ($M)
2024$108.0$9.0$4.8$94.2$7.6
2025$94.2$9.0$8.2$77.0$6.5
2026$77.0$9.0$11.8$56.2$5.2
2027$56.2$9.0$15.7$31.5$3.7
2028$31.5$9.0$22.5$0.0$1.8

Cash Flow and Returns:

YearEBITDA ($M)(-) CapEx(-) Δ WC(-) Interest(-) TaxesFCF ($M)Debt Paydown ($M)
2024$17.8$2.9$1.2$7.6$1.5$4.6$13.8
2025$21.2$3.3$1.4$6.5$2.8$7.2$17.2
2026$24.8$3.8$1.4$5.2$3.6$10.8$20.8
2027$28.7$4.2$1.5$3.7$4.8$14.5$24.7
2028$32.8$4.7$1.5$1.8$6.2$18.6$31.5

Exit Valuation (Year-end 2028):

  • Exit EBITDA: $32.8M
  • Exit Multiple: 11.0x
  • Enterprise Value: $360.8M
  • Net Debt: $0M (fully paid down)
  • Equity Value: $360.8M

Returns Analysis:

  • Initial Equity Investment: $72.0M
  • Exit Equity Value: $360.8M
  • Gross Multiple on Invested Capital (MOIC): 5.0x
  • Gross IRR: 38.0%
  • Cash-on-Cash Return: 5.0x

Sensitivity Analysis - IRR by Exit Multiple and EBITDA Margin:

Exit Multiple \ EBITDA Margin31%33%35%37%
9.0x27.4%31.5%35.4%39.1%
10.0x31.6%35.7%39.7%43.5%
11.0x35.3%39.5%43.6%47.4%
12.0x38.7%43.0%47.1%51.0%

Would you like me to adjust any of these assumptions or provide more detail on any specific aspect of the model?

Automatically generated Excel model

In addition to a summary in chat, the AI assistant will automatically generate a full Excel LBO model. This model includes all the detailed calculations, including debt schedules, cash flow projections, returns analysis, and sensitivity tables. All Excel sheets are linked and use formulas to ensure you can adjust any assumptions and see their impact across the entire model.

Key Value Drivers in LBO Models

The success of an LBO investment depends on several key value drivers:

  1. Purchase Multiple: A lower entry multiple relative to the exit multiple creates value through multiple expansion.

  2. Debt Paydown: Using the target company's cash flows to reduce debt increases the equity value over time.

  3. Operational Improvements: Increasing EBITDA through revenue growth and margin expansion.

  4. Financial Engineering: Optimizing the capital structure, refinancing at better terms, and dividend recapitalizations.

Understanding the sensitivity of returns to these key drivers is crucial for effective decision-making. Below is an example of how Finyna can help analyze different scenarios for an LBO investment.

Advanced LBO Scenario Analysis

I'd like to understand the impact of different value drivers on the IRR for my LBO deal. Can you show me a sensitivity analysis with different operational improvement and debt scenarios?

I'd be happy to prepare a sensitivity analysis to help you understand how different value drivers affect your LBO returns. I'll analyze the impact of operational improvements and debt scenarios on your IRR.

LBO Returns Sensitivity Analysis

Base Case Assumptions Recap:

  • Target: Mid-market SaaS company
  • Purchase Price: 180M(12.0x180M (12.0x 15M EBITDA)
  • Debt Financing: $108M (60% of purchase price)
  • Equity Contribution: $72M (40% of purchase price)
  • 5-year Hold Period: 2024-2028
  • Base Case IRR: 38.0%

1. Value Creation Bridge Analysis

Here's a breakdown of how different value creation levers contribute to the overall returns:

Value Creation LeverEquity Value Impact ($M)IRR Contribution
Entry Multiple$180.0-
EBITDA Growth$121.017.8%
Margin Expansion$59.88.2%
Debt Paydown$108.012.5%
Multiple Expansion($36.0)(3.5%)
Free Cash Flow$55.76.8%
Fees & Other($19.8)(3.8%)
Exit Value$360.838.0%

This shows that EBITDA growth and debt paydown are the largest contributors to your returns in the base case.

2. Operational Improvement Scenarios

ScenarioRevenue CAGRFinal EBITDA MarginExit EBITDA ($M)MOICIRR
Downside8%30%$22.13.0x24.6%
Base Case13%35%$32.85.0x38.0%
Upside18%38%$44.97.4x49.1%
Home Run25%40%$62.510.6x60.5%

3. Debt Structure Scenarios

ScenarioInitial LeverageInterest RateAnnual Debt PaydownExit LeverageIRR
Conservative4.0x EBITDA6.0%Required + 50% FCF0.5x EBITDA33.2%
Base Case6.0x EBITDA7.0%Required + 100% FCF0.0x EBITDA38.0%
Aggressive7.0x EBITDA8.0%Required Only2.0x EBITDA42.6%
High Leverage8.0x EBITDA9.0%Interest Only4.0x EBITDA45.1%

4. Combined Sensitivity Analysis: IRR by EBITDA Growth and Leverage

Revenue CAGR \ Initial Leverage4.0x6.0x7.0x8.0x
8%20.9%24.6%27.2%28.8%
13%31.2%38.0%42.6%45.1%
18%41.6%49.1%53.8%56.5%
25%52.0%60.5%65.7%69.1%

5. Dividend Recapitalization Scenario

If market conditions are favorable in Year 3, you could consider a dividend recapitalization:

ScenarioYear 3 EBITDARecap MultipleNew DebtDividendIRR Impact
No Recap$24.8---38.0%
Moderate Recap$24.85.0x$124.0$67.845.3%
Aggressive Recap$24.86.0x$148.8$92.653.7%

This analysis shows that while higher leverage increases IRR, it also increases risk. Operational improvements have a more sustainable impact on returns, particularly revenue growth.

Would you like me to focus on any specific aspect of this analysis in more detail?

Key Components of an LBO Model

A comprehensive LBO model typically includes the following components:

1. Transaction and Purchase Price Allocation

The model begins with the transaction structure, including the purchase price, fees, and the allocation between debt and equity. This section also includes the sources and uses of funds.

Sources of FundsAmount ($M)%Uses of FundsAmount ($M)%
Senior Debt$90.047.4%Purchase Equity$180.094.7%
Subordinated Debt$18.09.5%Transaction Fees$6.33.3%
Private Equity$72.037.9%Debt Financing Fees$2.71.4%
Management Rollover$10.05.3%Working Capital$1.00.5%
Total Sources$190.0100.0%Total Uses$190.0100.0%

2. Operating Model and Projections

This section forecasts the target company's financial performance during the holding period.

3. Debt Schedule

The debt schedule tracks each debt tranche, including:

  • Principal payments (mandatory and optional)
  • Interest calculations
  • Covenant compliance
  • Potential refinancing opportunities

4. Free Cash Flow Calculation

Free cash flow is used for debt repayment and determines the company's ability to service its debt obligations.

5. Exit Valuation and Returns

The final section calculates the expected exit value and investor returns:

  • Exit Enterprise Value (typically based on an exit multiple applied to final year EBITDA)
  • Less: Remaining debt
  • Equals: Exit Equity Value
  • Returns calculations (MOIC, IRR, cash-on-cash return)

Deal Structuring and Covenant Analysis

What debt covenants should I include in my LBO model for a retail company acquisition? I'm concerned about maintaining flexibility while satisfying lenders.

Debt covenants are critical in LBO transactions, especially for retail companies where performance can fluctuate seasonally. Let me help you structure appropriate covenants that balance lender security with operational flexibility.

Recommended Covenant Structure for Retail LBO

1. Leverage Ratio Covenant

YearMaximum Net Debt/EBITDA
Year 16.00x
Year 25.50x
Year 35.00x
Year 44.50x
Year 54.00x

Analysis: This step-down structure gives you time to implement operational improvements while gradually deleveraging. For a retail business, this is more reasonable than an aggressive step-down that doesn't account for seasonality.

2. Interest Coverage Ratio

YearMinimum EBITDA/Interest Expense
Year 11.75x
Year 22.00x
Year 32.25x
Year 42.50x
Year 52.75x

Analysis: This covenant ensures the business maintains sufficient earnings to cover interest payments, but starts conservatively to give you implementation time.

3. Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio

YearMinimum (EBITDA - CapEx)/Fixed Charges
Year 11.10x
Year 21.15x
Year 31.20x
Year 41.25x
Year 51.30x

Fixed Charges = Interest Expense + Required Principal Payments + Capital Lease Payments

Analysis: Particularly important for retail with significant lease obligations.

4. Capital Expenditure Limitations

YearMaximum CapEx ($M)Carryforward Provision
Year 1$12.050% of unused amount
Year 2$15.050% of unused amount
Year 3$18.050% of unused amount
Year 4$20.050% of unused amount
Year 5$22.050% of unused amount

Analysis: Sets reasonable limitations while allowing for store refreshes and expansions. The carryforward provision gives flexibility to defer investments if needed.

5. Minimum Liquidity Requirement

PeriodMinimum Liquidity ($M)
All times$15.0
Peak season preparatory period$25.0

Analysis: Ensures adequate cash cushion, especially important during inventory build-up periods.

6. Covenant Testing and Cushions

CovenantTesting FrequencyRecommended Cushion
LeverageQuarterly15-20%
Interest CoverageQuarterly15-20%
Fixed ChargeQuarterly10-15%
CapExAnnually10-15%
LiquidityMonthly5-10%

7. Covenant Flexibility Provisions

ProvisionDescription
Equity CureAllow equity injections to cure covenant breaches (limit 2 per year, 4 over loan life)
EBITDA AddbacksUp to 15% of EBITDA for restructuring, integration, and one-time costs
Seasonal AdjustmentsHigher leverage tolerance during inventory build periods
Basket for Acquisitions$30M cumulative with leverage test

Would you like me to explain any of these covenants in more detail or discuss how to model their impact on your flexibility during the holding period?

Conclusion: Best Practices for LBO Analysis

When using Finyna for LBO model analysis:

  1. Be specific about transaction structure: Clearly define the purchase price, debt-to-equity ratio, and financing terms.
  2. Model multiple scenarios: Always evaluate downside, base case, and upside scenarios to understand the risk profile.
  3. Focus on key value drivers: Identify which factors (operational improvements, debt paydown, multiple expansion) contribute most to returns.
  4. Stress test covenant compliance: Ensure your projections maintain adequate headroom under various scenarios.
  5. Analyze exit options: Consider multiple exit strategies and timing to optimize returns.
  6. Consider add-on acquisitions: Model the impact of strategic acquisitions during the holding period.

Remember that LBO modeling is both an analytical exercise and a strategic planning tool. While Finyna can help with the complex calculations and scenario analysis, your investment judgment and industry knowledge remain essential for successful private equity investments.

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Finyna Financial Team

Financial analysis and AI expert at Finyna. Specializing in creating AI-powered tools for financial professionals.

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